BY JAMES A. DOWNS | SEPTEMBER 14, 2023
The New Democrat Coalition is not traditionally known as a force on the campaign trail. The group, first formed in 1997, is better known for its focus on pro-business policies and its moderate bona fides. But as the organization has grown in recent years to comprise nearly half of the entire Democratic Caucus, the coalition sees an opportunity to influence the outcome of next year’s elections.
“When we started this session in January, [House Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries came to our first luncheon and said, 'You are the majority makers. You are the ones that are going to hand back the gavel,’” Rep. Ann McLane Kuster of New Hampshire, who chairs the group, told National Journal.
This cycle the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund is stepping up its efforts to win back the narrowly divided House. Democrats need to flip just five seats to retake the majority.
“We have 19 incumbent Frontliners that are New Dems, and then we will be going out to win purple districts,” Kuster said, referring to the members the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identified as its most vulnerable. “What we're doing between 2022 and 2024 is significantly ramping up our fundraising and our political engagement.”
Kuster credits the group's members with pushing “back on the ‘red wave’ that never materialized” in 2022.
The group launched its first independent-expenditure effort last cycle, helping Reps. Shontel Brown, Sean Casten, and Haley Stevens win primaries. The coalition spent that money on communications coaching, message-testing, and research.
Rep. Eric Sorensen, a freshman from a competitive Illinois seat, told National Journal the Action Fund was an “important partner in my campaign.” He said the PAC contributed to his 4-point general-election victory by “investing in research to ensure voters were hearing the right message in the final weeks of the campaign," as well as providing "strategic guidance, introducing me to supporters and a network in D.C. and beyond," and giving "on-the-ground support.”
Kuster says the group hopes to continue that level of support heading into 2024, bolstered by a robust fundraising effort.
The group raised $3.5 million during the 2022 cycle directly for members and endorsed candidates. It hopes to double that total this cycle, Kuster told National Journal, and is currently on pace to do so.
“It’s sort of a mirror organizational structure to the DCCC,” Kuster said. DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene once chaired the New Democrats, and Kuster said the groups are working together as strategic partners.
But the New Democrats can take a more aggressive approach earlier in the cycle than the official committee. The DCCC won’t get directly involved in primaries, and it doesn’t endorse primary challengers. The New Democrat Coalition Action Fund has so far endorsed seven candidates across competitive districts and is active in the recruitment process.
The coalition’s PAC has launched two new joint fundraising committees —in California and New York—to direct more dollars to candidates. The effort in the two states aligns with the DCCC's emphasis there, as well as that of the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC, which has committed to spending $35 million in California and $45 million in New York Democrats are targeting 14 GOP-held seats and one open seat in both those states.
“If nothing changes in 49 other states and we do our job correctly in California. we'll flip the House just right here,” said Rep. Josh Harder of California, a cochair for recruitment with the New Democrats.
The New Democrats are also targeting the 18 seats held by Republicans that President Biden won and have endorsed challengers in five of these races so far. The DCCC has made clear that these seats are the path to the majority.
“We have 18 seats that Biden won that the DCCC has targeted, and virtually all of them are New Dem pickup opportunities,” Kuster said.
“We're looking for folks that really understand their local community and have a track record of success,” Harder said. “We don’t have any policy litmus test.”
To win in these districts, Democrats need to refine their message on the economy. Biden’s approval rating for handling the economy is underwater, and the National Republican Congressional Committee along with the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund have telegraphed that they intend to hammer Democrats on “Bidenomics.” New Democrat members who spoke to National Journal agreed the key was taking the conversation back to the districts, detached from the president, and drawing comparisons with Republicans.
Pointing to a story about Rep. Susan Wild in The Washington Post as a guide, Kuster said candidates need to “show up and talk about local issues, and how your job impacts real people’s real lives.”
Abortion, too, promises to be an integral part of the New Democrat campaign playbook, according to Kuster, who said the group will be able to frame the discussion around economic security. Abortion rights were historically not an issue for the coalition but, she said, “reproductive rights and controlling when and whether to have a family is absolutely instrumental to economic security and stability.” As Democrats struggle to communicate effectively on the economy, the New Democrats are pairing that issue with abortion, which has been a winning issue for the party since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
In a statement to National Journal, Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey localized the benefits of federal legislation. “New Jersey has had the fastest manufacturing and jobs growth in more than two decades. Instead of focusing on jobs and the cost of living, extreme Republicans are pushing for a national abortion ban and cuts to critical programs like Head Start,.” Sherrill said.
The coalition's leadership is expressing optimism about promulgating its message on the trail. “I think the greatest gift to our efforts in the New Dem Coalition—[with] strong Democratic candidates across the country —is just how divisive and extreme the Republican majority has been,” Harder said.
“I think it’s going to allow our candidates to have a pretty clear contrast message.”
Zach Blackburn contributed to this report.